Forecasting future student numbers

A university in Victoria recently commissioned ACER to provide an indication of potential future enrolment numbers from four of its key catchment areas.  This project has further developed the skills and expertise of the ACER Higher Education research team, following large scale projects related to education planning in Victoria (the Victorian Education Plan), Gippsland (the Gippsland Education Plan) and the growth areas of Melbourne (Growth Corridor Plans).

The study, by ACER Senior Research Fellow Dr Daniel Edwards, created enrolment estimates for the university’s campuses based on student-age population projections, assumptions about university participation rates and the market share of each campus.  The work utilised data from a range of sources to identify baseline population figures and build assumptions into the modelling. Four university participation scenarios were modelled, based on participation rates that ranged from constant to high growth.

Three of the four key catchment areas for the campuses in the study are projected to experience a high level of population growth over the coming decades, with strong growth in the key university attending age group of 18 to 24 years. Between 2011 and 2031, the projected population growth for this age group in the outer urban areas in the study ranges from 38 per cent to 102 per cent.

‘The projections show that even if university participation rates remained the same, there would be notable growth in the number of university attendees from each of these areas over the coming decade,’ Dr Edwards said.

‘Obviously, the three other scenarios – trend, steady growth and high growth in participation – suggest respectively larger and growing university attending populations in these areas.’

ACER developed the study in such a way that it enables the university to conduct further modelling in the future by altering the market share assumptions.

‘ACER’s work offered the university some valuable insights for future planning.  They can use the results to reconcile campus availability and functionality with student numbers,’ Dr Edwards said.

Find out more:
For an example of the detailed forecasting reports ACER can provide read Forecasting university enrolment and completion numbers for Victoria, by Daniel Edwards, available at <research.acer.edu.au/higher_education/20/>